Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.754652 13.194212 14.844433 16.900629 19.429720 22.488312 26.547247
2024-10-27 9.648107 11.305041 13.341816 16.094824 19.829071 24.901040 32.678774
2024-11-03 9.432319 11.503773 14.226047 18.220982 24.242830 33.610431 50.950561
2024-11-10 8.901017 11.162452 14.279088 19.142039 27.110972 41.036325 71.944855
2024-11-17 7.987771 10.168202 13.252092 18.232825 26.804451 42.906305 83.379113
2024-11-24 7.448466 9.629328 12.798399 18.108805 27.755011 47.457531 105.413492
2024-12-01 6.968366 9.122348 12.322546 17.853259 28.379932 51.579141 131.470051
2024-12-08 6.608855 8.756641 12.017022 17.826513 29.422469 57.142082 172.307399
2024-12-15 6.348936 8.515198 11.876443 18.058706 31.043477 65.066338 245.180532
2024-12-22 5.979020 8.075717 11.370829 17.546448 30.924939 68.087559 302.644745
2024-12-29 5.738107 7.819277 11.143286 17.525172 31.923374 75.246992 435.996825
2025-01-05 5.413957 7.410754 10.626377 16.877407 31.284413 76.567394 525.385912
2025-01-12 5.051314 6.937066 9.992240 15.986081 30.021930 75.633309 599.345670
2025-01-19 4.739897 6.530505 9.448917 15.226990 28.975901 75.210430 702.240848
2025-01-26 4.869206 6.842140 10.177847 17.171383 35.638478 114.753251 10798.088996
2025-02-02 4.819767 6.853409 10.369459 18.010849 39.628122 150.809107 NaN
2025-02-09 4.559724 6.494565 9.850490 17.181908 38.135265 149.066115 NaN
2025-02-16 4.408430 6.313261 9.651431 17.068686 38.994851 167.211865 NaN
2025-02-23 4.253993 6.118562 9.413338 16.835275 39.394531 183.288958 NaN
2025-03-02 4.134797 5.978631 9.269951 16.810836 40.549676 210.688987 NaN
2025-03-09 4.049779 5.893554 9.225892 17.022938 42.686825 258.843770 NaN
2025-03-16 3.897297 5.683066 8.923143 16.554829 42.037194 268.925677 NaN
2025-03-23 3.801004 5.567837 8.801873 16.535373 43.227319 315.542296 NaN